Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 0.097543 0.108802 0.120451 0.133375 0.147283 0.161770 0.177974
2024-11-03 0.084651 0.102048 0.121034 0.143160 0.168103 0.195217 0.226787
2024-11-10 0.069751 0.090505 0.114304 0.143287 0.177298 0.215620 0.261727
2024-11-17 0.059649 0.082747 0.110427 0.145444 0.187945 0.237254 0.298158
2024-11-24 0.050960 0.075355 0.105824 0.145727 0.195632 0.255024 0.330042
2024-12-01 0.047301 0.073725 0.107859 0.153804 0.212614 0.283975 0.375636
2024-12-08 0.044287 0.072467 0.109999 0.161769 0.229396 0.312840 0.421564
2024-12-15 0.039251 0.067759 0.107008 0.162574 0.236719 0.329796 0.452853
2024-12-22 0.033659 0.061577 0.101400 0.159329 0.238332 0.339251 0.474635
2024-12-29 0.031570 0.060368 0.102554 0.165161 0.251905 0.364105 0.516185
2025-01-05 0.029144 0.058347 0.102307 0.168876 0.262571 0.385259 0.553243
2025-01-12 0.026790 0.056167 0.101605 0.171778 0.272053 0.404909 0.588558
2025-01-19 0.024223 0.053531 0.100265 0.174026 0.281185 0.424969 0.625769
2025-01-26 0.024102 0.055136 0.105605 0.186372 0.304940 0.465294 0.690659
2025-02-02 0.021421 0.051879 0.103032 0.186736 0.311666 0.482740 0.725569
2025-02-09 0.019491 0.049756 0.102091 0.189446 0.321736 0.504865 0.767046
2025-02-16 0.017357 0.046953 0.099776 0.189830 0.328310 0.522184 0.802220
2025-02-23 0.017001 0.047645 0.103392 0.199631 0.348955 0.559392 0.864917
2025-03-02 0.016637 0.048263 0.106868 0.209262 0.369498 0.596718 0.928208
2025-03-09 0.015030 0.046020 0.105104 0.210237 0.376888 0.615415 0.965916
2025-03-16 0.012930 0.042375 0.100526 0.206322 0.376632 0.623112 0.988394
2025-03-23 0.012425 0.042315 0.102509 0.213360 0.393304 0.655279 1.045296
2025-03-30 0.011646 0.041495 0.102992 0.217835 0.406048 0.681918 1.094740